Bad Beats: 3 outer, 2 outer, 1 outer

Discussion in 'Games of Chance' started by JackT, Apr 11, 2006.

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  1. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    I totally disagree. It means you're in fish heaven. You have to play carefully, but usually these are the easiest tournements to finish in the money, because you just have to be patient and wait for the stupidity. It's also where you ALWAYS have guys with pocket pairs calling almost anything with overcards on the board. I love those guys (80% pf PP players). Most of the time all you have to do is hit top pair with a good kicker, bet big and you win tons.
  2. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

    Messages:
    4,542
    If youre playing at a place where you constantly get 3 to 4 callers with a big raise then you need to either go elsewhere or play bigger stakes

    Just imagine jack if the odds held up, you would have been dominating.

    In turney play you need ot amass chips and sometimes take calculated risks in order to get the chips.
  3. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    In terms of where in the tournement, chipstack size, etc, I had this situation:
    final table, about 6 guys left, chip leader has about 64,000, I have about 60,000, next guy has about 25,000, etc. chip leader is BB. I have pockets Q's in about 2nd after the BB. I raise reasonably large (if the BB was 1,000, I bet something like 6,000). BB goes all-in, I call. He turns over AT off. Flop hits an A. I go from 2nd to out of the money (by 1). What would I do next time? Same thing. I was ahead 71% to 29%, and I'll make that bet all day long.
  4. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    I disagree: If I think that no matter what I do, there's going to be more than 3 callers, I won't go big on AA. For example, if you have Rockets and are called by pocket 3's, JTh, 98c, and KQs, your odds of winning the pot are less than 40%. Your odds of winning are much, much better than any one other person (they're from 12% to 19%), but you're still dominate by the pack.

    However, heads up... ALWAYS. In the situation above (AA vs AKs), AA is 87% to 12%. If you're not going to take those bets, don't play. In fact, against AA, 32 off is (slightly) better than AKs.
  5. Ozzy

    Ozzy

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    15,725
    Saw this one TV the other night....

    player 1 has A & 5
    player 2 has two K's

    two A's and a K on the flop.

    another A on the river....

    Neither went all in...

    losing K's & A's full (on the flop) is a tough one.
  6. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

    Messages:
    4,542
    No, always go for the win. Never fold aces unless its a time consideration (ie. top 6 spots pay a seat to a big tourney and there's 8 players and you have a big stack, so why get involved with a big pot with a big stack?)
  7. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    Not PP, but I was playing an $11 six-handed table multitable tourney last night on pokerstars...
    I'm not used to the six-handed format, but I ended up picking my spots and staying aggressive throughout -- but also getting away from hands when necessary. I had a large stack for a good portion of the tourney (middle to end, I was either 1, 2 or 3), and was doubling up
    Started out with a huge field ... but this hand came right before the final table, I had 2nd largest stack:

    Me: ~205000 chips
    Villain: ~230000 chips
    Everyone else: 70000 chips to 14000 chips

    2 tables left... Four players on my table

    I have AA in early position. I've been raising a lot, and actually people have been making comments in chat like they are going to pick me off one of these times, so I make my standard raise (I think about 16000 at that point)... fold, fold, Villain re-raises me all in.... I pause to think about it... AA preflop... I can't pass this up, right?? I call.

    Villian shows AK clubs.

    Board comes J Q 6 T 2 and I am kicking myself for butting heads with the largest stack. I placed 7th... one away from the final table. After almost 4 hours of playing, I won $103.00, a few places away from the big bucks....

    Should I not have played with the big stack here? Even with AA preflop?
  8. mitchmaxx

    mitchmaxx

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    1,221
    I just wanted to see if anyone here has been on the good end of the fucking BAAAD end I have been getting at PP??? I hope that someone I know is catching an inside straight against my KK, or AA.... Has ANYONE else noticed the CRAZY shit that is going on on PP lately??? I know it is notorious for bad beats, but lately it is crazy...
  9. kcdark

    kcdark

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    136
    i have taken some very bad beats as well. i thought i was the only one taking bad beats glad im not alone. some very interesting stories.
  10. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    You missed the point:

    Guy has AQ, Jack has Kx (let's say K2). Flop comes K44.

    Guy is 13+% to win. Name the circumstances where it's a value bet. It's worse than trying to fill an inside straight, which is 17+%.

    So, what were his pot odds when he called the flop bet by Jack?

    And that's with Kx not KK; with KK it's 0.4%.

    Jack has any 4, he's less than 2%.

    So, the ONLY time it makes sense (that I can see) is if he thinks Jack has dead zero.
  11. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

    Messages:
    4,542
    You play too much NL. The guy with the AQ just called jack's bets and never raised. Jack should have been trying to check raise and the fact that he didnt the aq guy mustve thought that jack had a Kx and not KK. Plus with a flop like that there is a good possibility that the aq guy thought jack was bluffing and was just calling to see if he could improve with an ace. I'll have to crunch teh numbers but the EV (expected value) might have been worth the call. (especially after the flop, I will concede that he shouldve folded on the turn) The real crime is after the 4th 4 hit the river the dope didnt bet his ace, there wasnt a hand that wouldve beat him (only tie) and he checks?!!
  12. mitchmaxx

    mitchmaxx

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    1,221
    I play PP all the time, if you ain't used to bad beats on there, you NEVER will be... I have been beaten ( Many tmes ) I have also won...( a few ) I love thw 5 table and the tournaments.... I have been getting my ass KICKED as of late... KK some guy calls with 88 99 1010 you know the story.... hits his set by by... it has been happening a lot lately, ahhh what can you do... I win more than enough to keep playing, I am now on a mission to hit one of the BIG tournaments... were 1st prize is over 10,000 I will do it, its just a matter of time... The worst thing is coming in 12th in a 1500 man tournament and winning 800 or so, if you would have just called instead of raising..... you guys know the story...
  13. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    I'll make a comment when someone goes in stupid and bad beats me. Last night in a 5 table shoot out there were 3 all in, I had AJ, second guy A3, third guy 86s. Thirds guy hits flush and I said "All in with 86 suited? Nice call"
  14. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    Hand 1:

    first, in his mind it ewasn't a 3 outer, it was a 5 outer: look at the play from his pouint of view and I don't think it was all that bad, unless I'm missing something:

    I'm sitting with KJ, a good hand (level 5). I hit top pair with a pretty good kicker. From the betting, I think you probably have Kx. I don't think the x I would have put you on was A. As such, I'm not sure I would have played any differently than he did. This is one of the thing which is more liklely to happen in a limit game, because you don't have the bility to take down the pot with a huge bet on the flop, and guys like this can see the turn an river relatively cheaply. If you were able to make a bet twice the pot on the flop, the guy might have put you on a better hand and folded.

    Conclusion: not a really bad beat, because it's not like he "never should have been in the hand and pulled something out of left field". It's like the equivalent of going all-in with AK suited and the other guy turns over AA. Both make the right play, only one wins (or someone hits trip 5's on the flop 5-6-7 with pocket 5's, goes all in, and the other guy is holding 89).

    If you were in his postion, how would you have played it?

    Hand 2

    It's shocking how many players will hold onto pocket pairs with overcards looking for their 2 outs. Even "good" players (players who seem to do well at the tables otherwise). It's a terrible percentage play, but so many people do it nevertheless that you can't be all that surprised when it happens.

    Conclusion: bad beat, pure and simple. But again might not have hapnned in no limit if he were put all in directly on the flop. he got himself pot commited and........

    Hand 3

    I disagree with C9 on this. I'm holding AQ and the flop comes K44 and there's betting, I have to assume he's got either a K or a 4. If it's a 4, my only salvation is runner-runner JT. If it's a K, I'm only 3 outs. Let's say he's playing K9 (remember, I have AQ off). I'm at about 87/13 disadvantage...... FOLD. Let's say he was playing A4 suited : then I'm at a 98/2 disadvantage: FOLD TWICE!!!!!! Let's even say he's got pocket 5's: I'm still at a 76/24 disadvantage. The only way I'm in is if the guys been trying to steal pots and I think he's flat bluffing or maybe has Ax and is trying to chase me out (in this case, it was the other way around, I guess).

    Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see what he put you on where he thought the flop call was good (were you pushing in a lot, and he thought you also had Ax and his x was better than your x? Then I could see him doing it).

    But I'm always surprised (like people staying with pocket pairs and overcards) at how many people call big bets with a pair on the board who can't beat the trips.

    PS With the fre-flop action here, how could he not have put you on Kx (esp KQ, KJ or KT)? What did he think you raised with? J9?
  15. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

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    4,542
    I hate fucking cry babies, bad beats happen to all of us.
  16. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    I love when guys make all in pre-flop calls which they shouldn't have, hit something they shouldn't have, and then you hit and they cry "bad beat".

    Last nite: I go all-in with pocket 10's, get called by pocket 8's. I'm thinking "Perfect!!!!!". Except he hits his set on the flop (A 8 J). Turn K.
    River Q. He went batshit before leaving the table*. So in table chat I say "I feel bad for the guy, but it's not like I wasn't way ahead at the time I made the bet" and some idiot starts an argument with me at the table.


    Note: 3 table shoot-out.
  17. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

    Messages:
    4,542
    Here's a hand I lwon with recently that I just had to laugh at.


    .25/.5 NL HE I'm SB with pocket 4's. 2 limpers so I limp and the BB checks.

    Flop comes KK4

    I bet $4 right away in hopes that someone has a K and will get some action and to disguise my hand (no one would expect a boat at this point with my betting at the pot). BB folds, middle guy raises to 9 and last guy folds. I hem and haw for a bit and reraise to 25, middle guy reraises all in to 45 total, I call.

    He shows a pair of 10's.

    Turn comes out with a 10

    fuck me, he hits his 2 outter (to win, yes he couldve tied with a K) oh well, 45 wasnt going to kill me.

    River comes out, a 4

    I hit a one outter. guy gets all pissy as if he was robbed. I'm like, dude you sucked out first, get over it.
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2006
  18. Cloud Nine

    Cloud Nine I had to open my big mouth.......

    Messages:
    4,542
    You cant fault his play for hand 3. (Except he shouldve value bet the river)
  19. JackT

    JackT

    Messages:
    2,351
    I thought I'd share my online travails last night. 2/4 limit hold'em, Paradise Poker.
    (any comments?)....

    Hand 1: I'm on the button with AK suited (clubs). After two limpers, I raise, both limpers call.

    Flop: 6d Kd 2c

    Idiot checks, 2nd limper checks, I bet, idiot raises, 2nd limper folds, I reraise, idiot caps.

    Turn: 4s

    Idiot bets, I raise, idiot calls.

    River: Jd

    Idiot bets, I call, thinking I'm doomed to a flush.

    Idiot shows KJo to take down the pot.

    Oh well, so he hit a three outer, it happens.


    About 20 hands later, this happens (my turn with KJo!)...

    Hand 2: I had Kc Jd

    One limper, I limp, SB completes, BB checks.

    Flop: 5c Kd 9c

    Check, check, idiot bets, I call, two folds.

    Turn: Jh

    Idiot bets, I raise, idiot calls.

    River: 7s

    Idiot bets all-in (only $1.50 left at this point), hero calls.

    Idiot shows 7d 7h

    Aarrghh!!!!!!!

    Alright... this shit was starting to wear on me... but THIS next hand (about 40 hands later) was the one where I knew it was time to stop playing for the night:

    Hand 3:

    idiot raises in early position, I reraise in the BB with KK, idiot calls.

    Flop: K 4 4

    I bet, idiot calls.

    Turn: 4

    I bet, idiot calls.

    River: 4

    I check, Idiot shows AQo.

    Done.