Deal or No Deal

Discussion in 'Games of Chance' started by JackT, May 12, 2006.

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  1. SubmissiveAngel

    SubmissiveAngel

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    839
    you two are long overdue for your heads up no limit texas hold'em rematch.
    jackt, your cheese platter awaits.
  2. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    What was in the other case? What was the expected value?
  3. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    Yes, but the key there is "high risk"....
    quantifying the degree of risk is necessary to answer the question about whether any such deal is "pretty good"
  4. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    Said differently, the "switching" is advantageous in the Monty Hall problem because you are given a different choice based on later-gained knowledge... i.e., the choice between sticking with your 1/3 chance vs. choosing a case that has a higher chance of being the good one. You should use this later-gained knowledge to increase your chances.
    This seems to me inapplicable to DOND under its set of rules.
  5. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    In the Monty Hall problem, the host opens a case (door, whatever) that does not contain the big prize (i.e., zero chance of big prize being eliminated before player is given the option to switch). This is quite different from DOND, where the contestant may eliminate the big prize before being given the Banker's Offer vs. Your Own Case option....
  6. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    There's obviously a cross between the classic Monte Hall Dilemma problem and this which I have not seen explored yet.
  7. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    Isn't 161,000 risk free against $200,000 high risk a pretty good deal?
  8. daengman

    daengman

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    3,493
    Now that you have that kind of money, you can treat some of us mongers on this site to a free session.
  9. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    I made a cool $161,000.

    (unfortunately my case was worth $200,000 though!)
  10. curious

    curious

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    1,872
    Site hosting a simulation of the game (just for fun)

    http://www.unoriginal.co.uk/deal-or-no-deal.html

    One time I played it, whittled the cases down to $750 and the million.

    Took the 500,000 offer.

    (wouldn't you just KNOW the million was in my first selection?)

    ((rats))
  11. Bandaid

    Bandaid

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    2,140
    They might use a weighted average, where the higher value cases count differently. a 'weighted average' is "a method of computing a kind of arithmetic mean of a set of numbers in which some elements of the set carry more importance (weight) than others." The weighting might change as the game gets later.
  12. mitchmaxx

    mitchmaxx

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    1,221
    LOL HAHAHA After re-reading what i posted, that looks like what I wrote.... It had better be a GGOOOODDD Hummer...
  13. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    Well, if she was really hot.......... (or maybe a new job opportunity for Monica Lewinsky)
  14. mitchmaxx

    mitchmaxx

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    1,221
    I would love to see one of those dickheads take the 1st offer, and walk...LOL. How far in advance do the players know they have been picked? I have seen the " Banker " offer a Hummer and cash, knowing that the player wanted a hummer...
  15. Ozzy

    Ozzy

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    15,725
    There was a real dummy on last night...


    Only 4 boxes left... all were under $300 cept for one that was $300,000. The offer was $71,000. So with a one in four chance of having the 300,000 she gambled, turned down the sure thing (25% offer) and lost. That's a degenerate I'd like to have playing with me.
    Last edited: May 18, 2006
  16. justme

    justme <i>pop and click tainted</i> Vinyl ( is dead )

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    Yes, accept.
  17. Slinky Bender

    Slinky Bender The All Powerful Moderator

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    Do you mean accept?

    Also, since it's a game show, the audience wants excitement. If the contestant takes an early offer, there is ZERO excitement in the game for the audience. The further the game goes, the better the ratings. I would imagine the best possible outcome for the show would be to get down to 2 cases, one with the $1 million and one with the 1 cent. So "optimal" for the show is to drive as many contestants in that direction as possible.
  18. justme

    justme <i>pop and click tainted</i> Vinyl ( is dead )

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    The interesting thing is that this is somewhat consistant with my game theoretical approach to the problem. If the bank can callibrate the player's utility opne, it might be able to make a more self-serving offer late in the play.

    The best way to do that callibration is with offers that the player will not expect. Once the player accepts an offer, the game is over...
  19. justme

    justme <i>pop and click tainted</i> Vinyl ( is dead )

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    The optimal play for the bank will be the smaller of one cent above the player's equivalence for that lottery (the minimum the player will take) or the bank's euiqvalent for the lottery. The problem (I think) is that the bank has no idea what the player's min is, so it has to play it's own min (plus a penny).
  20. JackT

    JackT

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    2,351
    Ok, here's my trial run....

    I eliminated 1, 50, 75, 750, 50000 and 750000.
    My offer was 27478.
    No deal.
    I eliminated 10, 25, 1000, 100000 and 300000.
    My offer was 40725.
    No deal.
    I eliminated 0.01, 100, 400 and 200000.
    My offer was 66951.
    No deal.
    I eliminated 5000, 500000 and 750000.
    My offer was 68001. (baffling!)
    No deal.
    I eliminated 5 and 300.
    My offer was 93940.
    DEAL. Winner winner chicken dinner.
    -------
    So, the computer allows you to "see what would have happened..."

    I eliminated two more suitcases and had 500, 10000, 400000 and 1 million remaining. My would-be offer was 239085.

    I eliminated the 500 suitcase. My would-be offer was 432000.

    Then after eliminating another suitcase, I had 10000 and 1 million left. My would-be offer was 360,000.

    (my suitcase had the 10000, btw).


    Based on this ONE trial run, I think Bandaid's low-offers-early, more-difficult-offers-later theory, besides making sense, has some validity to it....