This is where we disagree. Let's assume, arguendo, that my thesis is right about it being 50/50 and mostly luck at heads-up, rather than the "you can win greater than 50% of the time" heads up. If that's the case, let's look at a few scenarios: 1) You "play for first" and you end up first 40% of the time, 3rd 40% of the time, and 2nd 20% of the time. Your EV is 34. 2) You "play for second" and only come in third 25% of the time. The remaining times are divided equally between 2nd and 1st place (37.5% each) your EV is 35. 3) You "play for second" and only come in third 20% of the time*. The remaining times are divided equally between 2nd and 1st place (40% each) your EV is 36. From what I've seen, scenario 3 is the most likely, because playing for second you can get the third place finishes down from "random" 33% to 20%, and as I stated before that a lot of the time the blinds are so high by the time it's heads up, that luck is the overriding factor. The time this changes is when the table has cleared out quickly, and the money round comes when the blinds are still relatively low. * the reason this happens is that so many guys play like you and are going for first that you can let them bump eachother off and then fight it out with the winner. These numbers change when your thesis that you can win greater than 50% of the time on heads up play, however. I think the difference is that such an assumption is contrary to your original thesis in this thread where "you don't have to be good, just follow a few simple rules" and you can win at SNG's. I think my thesis is more realistic if you take into account the thesis of the entire thread.